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Game Center · S7 · W11 · Upcoming

Chicago at Detroit

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 11
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Bears
Chicago
5-5CHI
Troy Discord avatarTroy
Upcoming
35%CHI
65%DET
ATLAS projected final
32CHI
-
36DET
Confidence65%
Primary driverH2h Dominance
H2H11-2 TheWitt
Spread
Total
Money
Home
Lions
Detroit
7-4DET
TheWitt Discord avatarTheWitt
A ATLAS READ

Lions are favored, and the model agrees.

Lions enter with the model lean at 65% and enough statistical support to back the record. Bears need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Lions deeper into the race. Bears need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Lions are favored
  • EDGEYardage profile - #4 offense, 354 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 27.8 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEBall security - a +0.06 better turnover margin than Bears.
Why Bears can win
  • EDGEGame script - Bears can tilt this if they keep Lions out of short fields.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Bears

Finish scoring drives

Bears need their 22.7 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Lions

Win the clean possessions

Lions are the model side at 65%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Bears can win the stat sheet; Lions can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Chicago BearsSeason leaders

Bears need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

C. Williams
QB · Chicago Bears
2,071
PASS YDS
16TD
3INT
D. Carradine
HB · Chicago Bears
496
RUSH YDS
7TD
104ATT
L. Burden III
WR · Chicago Bears
570
REC YDS
4TD
36REC
Detroit LionsSeason leaders

Lions lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

M. Faupula
QB · Detroit Lions
2,399
PASS YDS
21TD
6INT
J. Gibbs
HB · Detroit Lions
800
RUSH YDS
5TD
115ATT
A. St. Brown
WR · Detroit Lions
671
REC YDS
4TD
52REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Bears1-4 · last 5
WW10@ Packers24-21
LW9vs Raiders14-35
LW8@ Chargers14-17
LW7vs Steelers30-36
LW6@ Vikings10-17
Lions3-2 · last 5
LW10@ Vikings24-27
WW9@ Saints38-24
LW8vs Cowboys22-28
WW7vs Eagles23-20
WW6@ Packers22-16
05

Head to head

Recent finals
DET 4-1 CHIRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S7 · W4Lions at BearsCHI29-22
S6 · W6Lions at BearsDET34-31
S6 · W1Bears at LionsDET45-42
S5 · W11Bears at LionsDET24-21
S5 · W7Lions at BearsDET24-14