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Game Center · S7 · W11 · Upcoming

Atlanta at Jacksonville

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 11
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Falcons
Atlanta
8-3ATL
Odyssey63
Upcoming
56%ATL
44%JAX
ATLAS projected final
37ATL
-
35JAX
Confidence56%
Primary driverBalanced
Spread
Total
Money
Home
Jaguars
Jacksonville
6-4JAX
Mellow
A ATLAS READ

Falcons are favored, and the model agrees.

Falcons enter with the model lean at 56% and enough statistical support to back the record. Jaguars need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Falcons deeper into the race. Jaguars need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Falcons are favored
  • EDGEYardage profile - #3 offense, 336 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 29.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEBall security - a +0.87 better turnover margin than Jaguars.
Why Jaguars can win
  • EDGEGame script - Jaguars can tilt this if they keep Falcons out of short fields.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Jaguars

Finish scoring drives

Jaguars need their 24.9 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Falcons

Win the clean possessions

Falcons are the model side at 56%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Jaguars can win the stat sheet; Falcons can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Atlanta FalconsSeason leaders

Falcons need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

T. Choice
QB · Atlanta Falcons
2,650
PASS YDS
34TD
4INT
B. Robinson
HB · Atlanta Falcons
609
RUSH YDS
2TD
100ATT
E. Barron
WR · Atlanta Falcons
628
REC YDS
6TD
52REC
Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

M. Cartwright III
QB · Jacksonville Jaguars
2,185
PASS YDS
17TD
3INT
D. Achane
HB · Jacksonville Jaguars
672
RUSH YDS
6TD
152ATT
B. Thomas Jr
WR · Jacksonville Jaguars
607
REC YDS
7TD
40REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Falcons3-2 · last 5
WW10vs Panthers49-3
WW9vs Vikings20-17
WW8vs Seahawks56-27
LW7@ Texans21-27
LW6vs Titans7-42
Jaguars4-1 · last 5
WW10vs Colts35-21
WW9vs Broncos38-20
LW8@ Colts10-17
WW7@ Panthers38-21
WW5@ Patriots28-16
05

Head to head

Recent finals
JAX 1-1 ATLRecent finals across the latest 2 meetings.
S5 · W9Jaguars at FalconsJAX38-28
S3 · W12Falcons at JaguarsATL45-27