Game Center · S7 · W8 · Upcoming

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 8

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

Upcoming

46%JAX

54%IND

ATLAS projected final

23JAX

20IND

Confidence54%

Primary driverIND offense + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Colts

Indianapolis

3-5IND

BOwnerBenny

🆚REMATCH

A ATLAS READ

Colts are favored, and the model agrees.

Colts enter with the model lean at 54% and enough statistical support to back the record. Jaguars need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Colts deeper into the race. Jaguars need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Colts are favored

EDGEGame script - Colts can tilt this if they keep Jaguars out of short fields.

Why Jaguars can win

EDGEScoreboard output - a 23.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEBall security - a +1.08 better turnover margin than Colts.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Jaguars

Finish scoring drives

Jaguars need their 23.7 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Colts

Win the clean possessions

Colts are the model side at 54%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Jaguars can win the stat sheet; Colts can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Indianapolis ColtsSeason leaders

Colts lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

A. Richardson Sr

QB · Indianapolis Colts

1,806

PASS YDS

13TD

2INT

D. Patton

HB · Indianapolis Colts

510

RUSH YDS

4TD

118ATT

S. Burgess

WR · Indianapolis Colts

593

REC YDS

5TD

33REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Colts3-2 · last 5

WW7vs Ravens30-24

WW6@ Cardinals29-26

LW5@ Buccaneers9-17

LW4@ Texans17-29

WW3vs Panthers32-3

Head to head

Recent finals

IND 1-4 JAXRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.

S6 · W18Colts at JaguarsJAX53-36

S6 · W15Colts at JaguarsJAX31-26

S6 · W1Jaguars at ColtsJAX28-0

S5 · W16Jaguars at ColtsJAX24-17

S5 · W7Colts at JaguarsIND31-17