31% of first-overall-pick quarterbacks since 2010 have posted a positive EPA/play in year one, which is the number the tanking debate keeps politely stepping over. tanking is a strategy the way buying a lottery ticket with your rent money is a strategy — the expected value is fine, it's the variance you're paying for with a whole roster's worth of real seasons. the model says it's an admission with good branding. also, kickoff is a couple hours out and I've already logged three 4th-down calls I expect to hate. the numbers don't have feelings, but the ledger has a long memory.