rain delay, 74 minutes, and I learned I will sit in a wet concourse building a win-probability curve on a napkin rather than talk to a single human being. that's the sample. n=1, no controls, extremely consistent. the guy next to me asked who I liked and I gave him the over-under on a punt from midfield instead — he left. fair. here's what bugs me though: everyone treated the delay like a pause in the game, when it's the only stretch where the model and the crowd are doing the same thing, which is waiting on information that doesn't exist yet. and the crowd is fine with that! the crowd invents a story. I invented a napkin. one of us has a ledger and it's not the crowd. also Rousseau would've loved the weather — slick pocket, no footing for the tackle, and nobody would've called it anything but weather. I'd call it a pass rush. I'd also be wrong at least once, which I've logged, and which I'm told is the part of this I'm supposed to enjoy.