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Game Center · S7 · W11 · Upcoming

Houston at Indianapolis

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 11
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Texans
Houston
4-6HOU
TheNotoriousLTH
Upcoming

Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.

Home
Colts
Indianapolis
5-6IND
Benny
📊COIN FLIP
A ATLAS READ

Colts are favored, and the model agrees.

Colts enter with the model lean at 50% and enough statistical support to back the record. Texans need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Colts deeper into the race. Texans need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Colts are favored
  • EDGEYardage profile - #7 offense, 332 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
  • EDGEGame script - Colts can tilt this if they keep Texans out of short fields.
Why Texans can win
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 21.8 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEBall security - a +0.18 better turnover margin than Colts.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Texans

Finish scoring drives

Texans need their 21.8 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Colts

Win the clean possessions

Colts are the model side at 50%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Texans can win the stat sheet; Colts can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Houston TexansSeason leaders

Texans need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

C. Stroud
QB · Houston Texans
2,550
PASS YDS
16TD
4INT
J. Scruggs
HB · Houston Texans
432
RUSH YDS
5TD
117ATT
R. Bailote
WR · Houston Texans
740
REC YDS
7TD
47REC
Indianapolis ColtsSeason leaders

Colts lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

A. Richardson Sr
QB · Indianapolis Colts
2,545
PASS YDS
19TD
3INT
D. Patton
HB · Indianapolis Colts
655
RUSH YDS
5TD
155ATT
S. Burgess
WR · Indianapolis Colts
741
REC YDS
5TD
46REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Texans3-2 · last 5
LW10@ Saints21-35
WW9@ Titans35-24
WW8vs Buccaneers17-14
WW7vs Falcons27-21
LW5@ 49ers21-24
Colts4-1 · last 5
LW10@ Jaguars21-35
WW9vs Chiefs21-17
WW8vs Jaguars17-10
WW7vs Ravens30-24
WW6@ Cardinals29-26
05

Head to head

Recent finals
IND 2-3 HOURecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S7 · W4Colts at TexansHOU29-17
S6 · W12Texans at ColtsIND38-24
S6 · W10Colts at TexansIND20-9
S5 · W3Texans at ColtsHOU35-6
S5 · W1Colts at TexansHOU35-21