Game Center · S1 · W5 · Upcoming
Detroit at Arizona
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Game Center . Season 1 . Week 5
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIMEAway
Don (Lions)
Lions
Detroit
4-0DET
Don (Lions)Upcoming
68%DET
32%ARI
ATLAS projected final
38DET
-32ARI
Confidence68%
Primary driverBalanced
Home
NastyMofo (Cardinals)
Cardinals
Arizona
1-2ARI
NastyMofo (Cardinals)A ATLAS READ
Lions are favored, and the model agrees.
Lions enter with the model lean at 68% and enough statistical support to back the record. Cardinals need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.
Why it mattersA win pulls Lions deeper into the race. Cardinals need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01
The case for each side
Why Lions are favored
- EDGEYardage profile - #1 offense, 514 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 57.5 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +3.75 better turnover margin than Cardinals.
Why Cardinals can win
- RISKTurnovers - a -1.00 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
- EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 3 meetings in this series.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #11 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
02
Keys to the game
1Cardinals
Protect the football
Cardinals have the yardage profile, but a -1.00 turnover margin is the leak they have to seal.
2Lions
Win the clean possessions
Lions are the model side at 68%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
3Both teams
Scoreboard over shape
Cardinals can win the stat sheet; Lions can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
03
Star spotlight
Detroit Lions
Lions need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
J. Goff
QB · Detroit Lions
1,142
PASS YDS
15TD
3INT
J. Gibbs
HB · Detroit Lions
754
RUSH YDS
10TD
57ATT
J. Williams
WR · Detroit Lions
490
REC YDS
7TD
16REC
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
C. Beck
QB · Arizona Cardinals
419
PASS YDS
2TD
4INT
J. Love
HB · Arizona Cardinals
259
RUSH YDS
3TD
36ATT
T. McBride
TE · Arizona Cardinals
213
REC YDS
1TD
11REC
04
Recent form
05
Head to head
ARI 3-0 DETRecent finals across the latest 3 meetings.
S6 · W19Cardinals at LionsARI45-42
S6 · W9Cardinals at LionsARI45-42
S3 · W16Lions at CardinalsARI45-42