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Game Center · S1 · W5 · Upcoming

Philadelphia at Jacksonville

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 1 . Week 5
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Eagles
Philadelphia
2-2PHI
Will (Eagles) Discord avatarWill (Eagles)
Upcoming
59%PHI
41%JAX
ATLAS projected final
31PHI
-
29JAX
Confidence59%
Primary driverBalanced
Spread
Total
Money
Home
Jaguars
Jacksonville
2-1JAX
Gio (Jaguars) Discord avatarGio (Jaguars)
A ATLAS READ

Eagles are favored, and the model agrees.

Jaguars bring the sharper yardage profile at 419 YPG with a #22 offense. Eagles still own the cleaner path: 59% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Eagles deeper into the race. Jaguars need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Eagles are favored
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 30.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEBall security - a +2.17 better turnover margin than Jaguars.
Why Jaguars can win
  • RISKTurnovers - a -0.67 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
  • EDGEDefensive floor - a #2 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Jaguars

Protect the football

Jaguars have the yardage profile, but a -0.67 turnover margin is the leak they have to seal.

2Eagles

Win the clean possessions

Eagles are the model side at 59%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Jaguars can win the stat sheet; Eagles can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Philadelphia EaglesSeason leaders

Eagles need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

J. Hurts
QB · Philadelphia Eagles
919
PASS YDS
7TD
3INT
S. Barkley
HB · Philadelphia Eagles
384
RUSH YDS
6TD
61ATT
D. Smith
WR · Philadelphia Eagles
378
REC YDS
3TD
24REC
Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

T. Lawrence
QB · Jacksonville Jaguars
838
PASS YDS
7TD
8INT
B. Tuten
HB · Jacksonville Jaguars
287
RUSH YDS
3TD
38ATT
J. Meyers
WR · Jacksonville Jaguars
270
REC YDS
2TD
12REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Eagles2-2 · last 4
LW4vs Rams20-38
WW3@ Bears34-9
WW2@ Titans36-6
LW1vs Commanders31-52
Jaguars2-1 · last 3
WW3vs Patriots34-31
WW2@ Broncos28-24
LW1vs Browns24-38
05

Head to head

Recent finals
JAX 1-1 PHIRecent finals across the latest 2 meetings.
S6 · W18Jaguars at EaglesJAX35-20
S2 · W5Jaguars at EaglesPHI31-17