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Game Center · S1 · W5 · Upcoming

Tampa Bay at Dallas

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 1 . Week 5
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay
3-1TB
Jö (Bucs) Discord avatarJö (Bucs)
Upcoming
53%TB
47%DAL
ATLAS projected final
41TB
-
41DAL
Confidence53%
Primary driverBalanced
Spread
Total
Money
Home
Cowboys
Dallas
3-1DAL
Clutch (Cowboys) Discord avatarClutch (Cowboys)
🆚REMATCH
A ATLAS READ

Buccaneers are favored, and the model agrees.

Buccaneers enter with the model lean at 53% and enough statistical support to back the record. Cowboys need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Buccaneers deeper into the race. Cowboys need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Buccaneers are favored
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 28.5 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEGame script - Buccaneers can tilt this if they keep Cowboys out of short fields.
Why Cowboys can win
  • EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 3 meetings in this series.
  • EDGEBall security - a +2.00 better turnover margin than Buccaneers.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Cowboys

Finish scoring drives

Cowboys need their 28.3 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Buccaneers

Win the clean possessions

Buccaneers are the model side at 53%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Cowboys can win the stat sheet; Buccaneers can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Tampa Bay BuccaneersSeason leaders

Buccaneers need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

B. Mayfield
QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1,215
PASS YDS
9TD
7INT
B. Irving
HB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
219
RUSH YDS
5TD
50ATT
T. Hurst III
WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
337
REC YDS
2TD
19REC
Dallas CowboysSeason leaders

Cowboys lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

D. Prescott
QB · Dallas Cowboys
823
PASS YDS
9TD
4INT
J. Williams
HB · Dallas Cowboys
358
RUSH YDS
3TD
39ATT
G. Pickens
WR · Dallas Cowboys
224
REC YDS
6TD
15REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Buccaneers3-1 · last 4
LW4vs Packers28-31
WW3vs Vikings27-7
WW2vs Browns28-27
WW1@ Bengals31-28
Cowboys3-1 · last 4
WW4@ Texans31-27
LW3vs Ravens13-38
WW2vs Commanders42-28
WW1@ Giants27-7
05

Head to head

Recent finals
DAL 3-0 TBRecent finals across the latest 3 meetings.
S6 · W9Buccaneers at CowboysDAL34-10
S3 · W10Buccaneers at CowboysDAL41-14
S2 · W9Cowboys at BuccaneersDAL62-27