LEAGUE PULSE
ATLAS LIVE · connecting
Game Center · S1 · W4 · Upcoming

Denver at San Francisco

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 1 . Week 4
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Broncos
Denver
0-3DEN
The Babadook (Broncos) Discord avatarThe Babadook (Broncos)
Upcoming
35%DEN
65%SF
ATLAS projected final
28DEN
-
32SF
Confidence65%
Primary driverHome Field
Spread
Total
Money
Home
49ers
San Francisco
2-1SF
Z (49ers) Discord avatarZ (49ers)
🆚REMATCH
A ATLAS READ

49ers are favored, and the model agrees.

49ers enter with the model lean at 65% and enough statistical support to back the record. Broncos need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls 49ers deeper into the race. Broncos need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why 49ers are favored
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 31.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEBall security - a +2.67 better turnover margin than Broncos.
  • EDGEDefensive floor - a #5 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Why Broncos can win
  • RISKTurnovers - a -1.00 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
  • EDGEGame script - Broncos can tilt this if they keep 49ers out of short fields.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Broncos

Protect the football

Broncos have the yardage profile, but a -1.00 turnover margin is the leak they have to seal.

249ers

Win the clean possessions

49ers are the model side at 65%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Broncos can win the stat sheet; 49ers can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Denver BroncosSeason leaders

Broncos need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

B. Nix
QB · Denver Broncos
489
PASS YDS
5TD
5INT
R. Harvey
HB · Denver Broncos
246
RUSH YDS
1TD
38ATT
C. Sutton
WR · Denver Broncos
220
REC YDS
2TD
10REC
San Francisco 49ersSeason leaders

49ers lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

B. Purdy
QB · San Francisco 49ers
630
PASS YDS
5TD
4INT
C. McCaffrey
HB · San Francisco 49ers
362
RUSH YDS
5TD
50ATT
M. Evans
WR · San Francisco 49ers
162
REC YDS
2TD
10REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Broncos0-3 · last 3
LW3vs Rams20-27
LW2vs Jaguars24-28
LW1@ Chiefs17-49
49ers2-1 · last 3
WW3vs Cardinals32-28
LW2vs Dolphins31-49
WW1@ Rams31-28
05

Head to head

Recent finals
SF 0-2 DENRecent finals across the latest 2 meetings.
S6 · W3Broncos at 49ersDEN56-42
S2 · W249ers at BroncosDEN59-17