Game Center · S1 · W4 · Upcoming
Kansas City at Las Vegas
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Game Center . Season 1 . Week 4
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIMEAway
Mellow (Chiefs 🏹)
Chiefs
Kansas City
3-0KC
Mellow (Chiefs 🏹)Upcoming
71%KC
29%LV
ATLAS projected final
38KC
-30LV
Confidence71%
Primary driverBalanced
Home
JustQumir (Raiders)
Raiders
Las Vegas
1-2LV
JustQumir (Raiders)A ATLAS READ
Chiefs are favored, and the model agrees.
Chiefs enter with the model lean at 71% and enough statistical support to back the record. Raiders need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.
Why it mattersA win pulls Chiefs deeper into the race. Raiders need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01
The case for each side
Why Chiefs are favored
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 45.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +0.34 better turnover margin than Raiders.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #4 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Why Raiders can win
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #9 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
- EDGEGame script - Raiders can tilt this if they keep Chiefs out of short fields.
02
Keys to the game
1Raiders
Finish scoring drives
Raiders need their 31.3 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
2Chiefs
Control the repeat script
Chiefs have taken the last 4 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.
3Both teams
Scoreboard over shape
Raiders can win the stat sheet; Chiefs can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
03
Star spotlight
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
P. Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs
982
PASS YDS
13TD
5INT
K. Walker
HB · Kansas City Chiefs
297
RUSH YDS
4TD
31ATT
J. Caldwell
WR · Kansas City Chiefs
290
REC YDS
4TD
11REC
Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
F. Mendoza
QB · Las Vegas Raiders
736
PASS YDS
6TD
3INT
A. Jeanty
HB · Las Vegas Raiders
367
RUSH YDS
2TD
49ATT
T. Tucker
WR · Las Vegas Raiders
203
REC YDS
1TD
13REC
04
Recent form
05
Head to head
LV 1-4 KCRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S6 · W17Chiefs at RaidersKC52-28
S6 · W3Raiders at ChiefsKC57-53
S5 · W9Raiders at ChiefsKC42-31
S5 · W1Chiefs at RaidersKC37-32
S4 · W8Chiefs at RaidersLV45-38