Game Center · S99 · W2 · Upcoming

New York at Miami

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Jets

New York

1-0NYJ

Shottaz

Upcoming

85%NYJ

15%MIA

Pregame probability · excluding ties

ATLAS projected final

40NYJ

26MIA

Confidence85%

Primary driverH2h Dominance

H2H6-0 Saucy0134

Spread

Total

Money

Johnson

🔒MISMATCH

A ATLAS READ

Jets are favored, and the model agrees.

Jets enter with the model lean at 85% heading into this matchup. Dolphins need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Jets deeper into the race. Dolphins need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Jets are favored

EDGEYardage profile - #4 offense, 434 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
EDGEScoreboard output - a 38.0 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEBall security - a +3.00 better turnover margin than Dolphins.

Why Dolphins can win

EDGEGame script - Dolphins can tilt this if they keep Jets out of short fields.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Dolphins

Finish scoring drives

Dolphins need their 26.0 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Jets

Win the clean possessions

Jets are the model side at 85%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Dolphins can win the stat sheet; Jets can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

New York JetsSeason leaders

Jets need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

Miami DolphinsSeason leaders

Dolphins lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the football.

Recent form

Last 5 games

Jets1-0 · last 1

WW1 vs Steelers38-7

Dolphins0-1 · last 1

LW1 vs Raiders26-35

Head to head

First meeting.