San Francisco at Dallas
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Z (49ers)Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.
Clutch (Cowboys)Cowboys are favored, and the model agrees.
49ers bring the sharper yardage profile at 343 YPG with a #27 offense. Cowboys still own the cleaner path: 50% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.
The case for each side
- EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 2 meetings in this series.
- EDGEBall security - a +0.08 better turnover margin than 49ers.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 31.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #5 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Keys to the game
Finish scoring drives
49ers need their 31.3 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
Control the repeat script
Cowboys have taken the last 2 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.
Scoreboard over shape
49ers can win the stat sheet; Cowboys can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
Star spotlight
49ers need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
Cowboys lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
