Game Center · S7 · W17 · Upcoming
Arizona at Arizona
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Game Center . Season 7 . Week 17
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIMEAway
Chiefs
Arizona
3-4ARI
KOwnerKermUpcoming
52%ARI
48%ARI
ATLAS projected final
25ARI
-21ARI
Confidence52%
Primary driverC ball security
Home
Chargers
Arizona
3-5ARI
GOwnerGioA ATLAS READ
The numbers say Chargers. The record says Chiefs.
Chargers bring the sharper yardage profile at 346 YPG with a #6 offense. Chiefs still own the cleaner path: 52% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.
Why it mattersA win pulls Chiefs deeper into the race. Chargers need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01
The case for each side
Why Chargers are favored
- EDGEYardage profile - #6 offense, 346 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 28.0 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 4 meetings in this series.
Why Chiefs can win
- EDGEBall security - a +1.01 better turnover margin than Chargers.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #5 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
02
Keys to the game
1Chargers
Finish scoring drives
Chargers need their 28.0 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
2Chiefs
Win the clean possessions
Chiefs are the model side at 52%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
3Both teams
Scoreboard over shape
Chargers can win the stat sheet; Chiefs can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
03
Star spotlight
Arizona Cardinals
Chiefs need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
PM
P. Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs
1,293
PASS YDS
6TD
2INT
DE
D. Edwards
HB · Kansas City Chiefs
277
RUSH YDS
0TD
74ATT
XW
X. Worthy
WR · Kansas City Chiefs
403
REC YDS
2TD
23REC
Arizona Cardinals
Chargers lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
JH
J. Herbert
QB · Los Angeles Chargers
1,964
PASS YDS
19TD
5INT
OH
O. Hampton
HB · Los Angeles Chargers
387
RUSH YDS
5TD
68ATT
LM
L. McConkey
WR · Los Angeles Chargers
676
REC YDS
7TD
47REC
04
Recent form
Chiefs3-2 · last 5
WW7vs Raiders24-13
LW6@ Giants21-28
WW4@ Broncos23-13
LW3vs Bears24-31
WW2vs Vikings23-16
Chargers2-3 · last 5
WW7@ Broncos34-31
LW6vs Raiders24-27
LW5vs Broncos28-35
WW4vs Jaguars30-17
LW3@ Titans25-28
05
Head to head
ARI 4-1 ARIRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S6 · W13Chiefs at ChargersARI41-35
S6 · W3Chargers at ChiefsARI31-13
S5 · W12Chargers at ChiefsARI31-27
S5 · W10Chiefs at ChargersARI58-34
S4 · W13Chiefs at ChargersARI35-21