Game Center · S7 · W17 · Upcoming

Carolina at Jacksonville

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 17

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Texans

Carolina

2-5CAR

COwnerCPU

Upcoming

44%CAR

56%JAX

ATLAS projected final

24CAR

22JAX

Confidence56%

Primary driverJ ball security + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

🆚REMATCH

A ATLAS READ

The numbers say Texans. The record says Jaguars.

Texans bring the sharper yardage profile at 317 YPG with a #26 offense. Jaguars still own the cleaner path: 56% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Jaguars deeper into the race. Texans need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Jaguars are favored

EDGEScoreboard output - a 23.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 5 meetings in this series.
EDGEBall security - a +0.57 better turnover margin than Texans.

Why Texans can win

EDGEGame script - Texans can tilt this if they keep Jaguars out of short fields.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Texans

Finish scoring drives

Texans need their 20.7 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Jaguars

Control the repeat script

Jaguars have taken the last 5 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Texans can win the stat sheet; Jaguars can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Carolina PanthersSeason leaders

Texans need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

C. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

1,802

PASS YDS

10TD

2INT

J. Scruggs

HB · Houston Texans

259

RUSH YDS

3TD

76ATT

J. Noel

WR · Houston Texans

512

REC YDS

1TD

44REC

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Texans2-3 · last 5

WW7vs Falcons27-21

LW5@ 49ers21-24

WW4vs Colts29-17

LW3@ Dolphins10-28

LW2vs Broncos26-46

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Head to head

Recent finals

JAX 5-0 CARRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.

S6 · W7Jaguars at TexansJAX54-34

S6 · W3Texans at JaguarsJAX35-17

S5 · W8Texans at JaguarsJAX49-28

S5 · W4Jaguars at TexansJAX52-30

S4 · W15Jaguars at TexansJAX52-42