Game Center · S7 · W16 · Upcoming
Buffalo at Arizona
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Game Center . Season 7 . Week 16
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIMEAway
Bengals
Buffalo
7-0BUF
JOwnerJTUpcoming
44%BUF
56%ARI
ATLAS projected final
25BUF
-25ARI
Confidence56%
Primary driverL offense + home field
Home
Lions
Arizona
6-2ARI
TOwnerTheWittA ATLAS READ
Lions are favored, and the model agrees.
Lions enter with the model lean at 56% and enough statistical support to back the record. Bengals need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.
Why it mattersA win pulls Lions deeper into the race. Bengals need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01
The case for each side
Why Lions are favored
- EDGEYardage profile - #3 offense, 362 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 27.8 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #12 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Why Bengals can win
- EDGEBall security - a +0.93 better turnover margin than Lions.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #3 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
02
Keys to the game
1Bengals
Finish scoring drives
Bengals need their 25.6 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
2Lions
Win the clean possessions
Lions are the model side at 56%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
3Both teams
Scoreboard over shape
Bengals can win the stat sheet; Lions can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
03
Star spotlight
Buffalo Bills
Bengals need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
JB
J. Burrow
QB · Cincinnati Bengals
1,577
PASS YDS
13TD
4INT
TD
T. Dobbins
HB · Cincinnati Bengals
496
RUSH YDS
6TD
107ATT
JC
J. Chase
WR · Cincinnati Bengals
448
REC YDS
7TD
29REC
Arizona Cardinals
Lions lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
MF
M. Faupula
QB · Detroit Lions
1,775
PASS YDS
16TD
3INT
JG
J. Gibbs
HB · Detroit Lions
519
RUSH YDS
3TD
62ATT
AS
A. St. Brown
WR · Detroit Lions
507
REC YDS
3TD
40REC
04
Recent form
Bengals5-0 · last 5
WW6vs Ravens22-10
WW5vs Jets17-12
WW4vs Steelers34-28
WW3vs Browns31-28
WW2vs Chargers24-21
Lions4-1 · last 5
WW7vs Eagles23-20
WW6@ Packers22-16
WW5vs Vikings34-13
LW4@ Bears22-29
WW3vs Seahawks38-20
05
Head to head
ARI 0-3 BUFRecent finals across the latest 3 meetings.
S5 · W2Bengals at LionsBUF28-22
S3 · W13Bengals at LionsBUF52-43
S1 · W4Lions at BengalsBUF24-7