Game Center · S7 · W14 · Upcoming
Arizona at Arizona
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Game Center . Season 7 . Week 14
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIMEAway
Chargers
Arizona
3-5ARI
GOwnerGioUpcoming
35%ARI
65%ARI
ATLAS projected final
30ARI
-32ARI
Confidence65%
Primary driverC ball security + home field
Home
Commanders
Arizona
4-3ARI
IOwnerI2onDonA ATLAS READ
Commanders are favored, and the model agrees.
Chargers bring the sharper yardage profile at 346 YPG with a #6 offense. Commanders still own the cleaner path: 65% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.
Why it mattersA win pulls Commanders deeper into the race. Chargers need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01
The case for each side
Why Commanders are favored
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 28.6 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +1.58 better turnover margin than Chargers.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #8 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Why Chargers can win
- EDGEYardage profile - #6 offense, 346 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEGame script - Chargers can tilt this if they keep Commanders out of short fields.
02
Keys to the game
1Chargers
Finish scoring drives
Chargers need their 28.0 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
2Commanders
Win the clean possessions
Commanders are the model side at 65%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
3Both teams
Scoreboard over shape
Chargers can win the stat sheet; Commanders can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
03
Star spotlight
Arizona Cardinals
Chargers need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
JH
J. Herbert
QB · Los Angeles Chargers
1,964
PASS YDS
19TD
5INT
OH
O. Hampton
HB · Los Angeles Chargers
387
RUSH YDS
5TD
68ATT
LM
L. McConkey
WR · Los Angeles Chargers
676
REC YDS
7TD
47REC
Arizona Cardinals
Commanders lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
JD
J. Daniels
QB · Washington Commanders
2,031
PASS YDS
19TD
2INT
MM
M. McDermott
HB · Washington Commanders
369
RUSH YDS
6TD
107ATT
WR
W. Robinson
WR · Washington Commanders
661
REC YDS
8TD
38REC
04
Recent form
Chargers2-3 · last 5
WW7@ Broncos34-31
LW6vs Raiders24-27
LW5vs Broncos28-35
WW4vs Jaguars30-17
LW3@ Titans25-28
Commanders3-2 · last 5
WW7@ Vikings28-21
WW6vs Saints36-28
LW4vs Cowboys35-41
WW3@ Eagles35-14
LW2vs Lions21-31
05
Head to head
ARI 0-2 ARIRecent finals across the latest 2 meetings.
S5 · W9Chargers at CommandersARI23-21
S1 · W4Commanders at ChargersARI24-17