Game Center · S7 · W14 · Upcoming

Arizona at Buffalo

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 14

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Lions

Arizona

6-2ARI

TOwnerTheWitt

Upcoming

63%ARI

37%BUF

ATLAS projected final

32ARI

26BUF

Confidence63%

Primary driverL home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Broncos

Buffalo

4-4BUF

DOwnerDon

🆚REMATCH

A ATLAS READ

The numbers say Broncos. The record says Lions.

Broncos bring the sharper yardage profile at 373 YPG with a #2 offense. Lions still own the cleaner path: 63% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Lions deeper into the race. Broncos need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Broncos are favored

EDGEYardage profile - #2 offense, 373 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 2 meetings in this series.
EDGEBall security - a +0.13 better turnover margin than Lions.

Why Lions can win

EDGEYardage profile - #3 offense, 362 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
EDGEScoreboard output - a 27.8 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEDefensive floor - a #12 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Broncos

Finish scoring drives

Broncos need their 25.5 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Lions

Win the clean possessions

Lions are the model side at 63%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Broncos can win the stat sheet; Lions can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Arizona CardinalsSeason leaders

Lions need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

M. Faupula

QB · Detroit Lions

1,775

PASS YDS

16TD

3INT

J. Gibbs

HB · Detroit Lions

519

RUSH YDS

3TD

62ATT

A. St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

507

REC YDS

3TD

40REC

Buffalo BillsSeason leaders

Broncos lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

B. Nix

QB · Denver Broncos

2,081

PASS YDS

18TD

5INT

R. Harvey

HB · Denver Broncos

640

RUSH YDS

2TD

129ATT

C. Fitzsimmons

WR · Denver Broncos

586

REC YDS

9TD

43REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Lions4-1 · last 5

WW7vs Eagles23-20

WW6@ Packers22-16

WW5vs Vikings34-13

LW4@ Bears22-29

WW3vs Seahawks38-20

Broncos2-3 · last 5

LW7vs Chargers31-34

LW6@ Cowboys14-24

WW5@ Chargers35-28

LW4vs Chiefs13-23

WW3vs Packers17-16

Head to head

Recent finals

BUF 2-0 ARIRecent finals across the latest 2 meetings.

S5 · W8Broncos at LionsBUF37-32

S3 · W4Lions at BroncosBUF38-30