Game Center · S7 · W12 · Upcoming

Jacksonville at Arizona

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 12

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

Upcoming

44%JAX

56%ARI

ATLAS projected final

24JAX

21ARI

Confidence56%

Primary driverS offense + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Seahawks

Arizona

3-4ARI

NOwnernickpapura23

A ATLAS READ

Seahawks are favored, and the model agrees.

Seahawks enter with the model lean at 56% and enough statistical support to back the record. Jaguars need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Seahawks deeper into the race. Jaguars need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Seahawks are favored

EDGEScoreboard output - a 24.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEGame script - Seahawks can tilt this if they keep Jaguars out of short fields.

Why Jaguars can win

EDGEBall security - a +0.28 better turnover margin than Seahawks.
EDGEGame script - Jaguars can tilt this if they keep Seahawks out of short fields.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Jaguars

Finish scoring drives

Jaguars need their 23.7 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Seahawks

Win the clean possessions

Seahawks are the model side at 56%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Jaguars can win the stat sheet; Seahawks can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Arizona CardinalsSeason leaders

Seahawks lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

J. Milroe

QB · Seattle Seahawks

2,121

PASS YDS

18TD

10INT

J. Brooks

HB · Seattle Seahawks

139

RUSH YDS

2TD

48ATT

J. Williams

WR · Seattle Seahawks

609

REC YDS

9TD

46REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Seahawks2-3 · last 5

LW7@ Rams24-45

WW6@ 49ers29-28

LW4vs Browns13-34

LW3@ Lions20-38

WW2vs Panthers30-24

Head to head

Recent finals

ARI 2-1 JAXRecent finals across the latest 3 meetings.

S5 · W6Jaguars at SeahawksARI27-19

S3 · W16Jaguars at SeahawksJAX42-35

S1 · W5Seahawks at JaguarsARI27-26