Game Center · S7 · W13 · Upcoming

Jacksonville at Carolina

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 13

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

Upcoming

42%JAX

58%CAR

ATLAS projected final

23JAX

23CAR

Confidence58%

Primary driverT offense + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Texans

Carolina

2-5CAR

COwnerCPU

🆚REMATCH

A ATLAS READ

Texans are favored, and the model agrees.

Texans enter with the model lean at 58% and enough statistical support to back the record. Jaguars need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Texans deeper into the race. Jaguars need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Texans are favored

EDGEGame script - Texans can tilt this if they keep Jaguars out of short fields.

Why Jaguars can win

EDGEScoreboard output - a 23.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEBall security - a +0.57 better turnover margin than Texans.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Jaguars

Finish scoring drives

Jaguars need their 23.7 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Texans

Win the clean possessions

Texans are the model side at 58%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Jaguars can win the stat sheet; Texans can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Carolina PanthersSeason leaders

Texans lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

C. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

1,802

PASS YDS

10TD

2INT

J. Scruggs

HB · Houston Texans

259

RUSH YDS

3TD

76ATT

J. Noel

WR · Houston Texans

512

REC YDS

1TD

44REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Texans2-3 · last 5

WW7vs Falcons27-21

LW5@ 49ers21-24

WW4vs Colts29-17

LW3@ Dolphins10-28

LW2vs Broncos26-46

Head to head

Recent finals

CAR 0-5 JAXRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.

S6 · W7Jaguars at TexansJAX54-34

S6 · W3Texans at JaguarsJAX35-17

S5 · W8Texans at JaguarsJAX49-28

S5 · W4Jaguars at TexansJAX52-30

S4 · W15Jaguars at TexansJAX52-42