Game Center · S7 · W16 · Upcoming

Buffalo at Jacksonville

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 16

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Buccaneers

Buffalo

3-4BUF

SOwnerSignman

Upcoming

45%BUF

55%JAX

ATLAS projected final

19BUF

16JAX

Confidence55%

Primary driverJ ball security + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

A ATLAS READ

Jaguars are favored, and the model agrees.

Jaguars enter with the model lean at 55% and enough statistical support to back the record. Buccaneers need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Jaguars deeper into the race. Buccaneers need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Jaguars are favored

EDGEScoreboard output - a 23.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEBall security - a +0.85 better turnover margin than Buccaneers.

Why Buccaneers can win

EDGEDefensive floor - a #2 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
EDGEGame script - Buccaneers can tilt this if they keep Jaguars out of short fields.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Buccaneers

Finish scoring drives

Buccaneers need their 20.4 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Jaguars

Win the clean possessions

Jaguars are the model side at 55%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Buccaneers can win the stat sheet; Jaguars can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Buffalo BillsSeason leaders

Buccaneers need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

C. Taggart

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1,610

PASS YDS

16TD

7INT

B. Richardson

HB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

344

RUSH YDS

0TD

98ATT

T. Palmer

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

620

REC YDS

7TD

38REC

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Buccaneers2-3 · last 5

LW7@ Saints24-31

WW5vs Colts17-9

LW4@ Falcons16-21

LW3vs Bills24-30

WW2vs 49ers21-17

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Head to head

Recent finals

JAX 1-0 BUFRecent finals across the latest 1 meetings.

S3 · W14Jaguars at BuccaneersJAX27-24