Game Center · S7 · W14 · Upcoming

Jacksonville at Arizona

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 14

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

Upcoming

36%JAX

64%ARI

ATLAS projected final

17JAX

19ARI

Confidence64%

Primary driverC ball security + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Chiefs

Arizona

3-4ARI

KOwnerKerm

A ATLAS READ

The numbers say Jaguars. The record says Chiefs.

Jaguars bring the sharper yardage profile at 310 YPG with a #27 offense. Chiefs still own the cleaner path: 64% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Chiefs deeper into the race. Jaguars need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Chiefs are favored

EDGEBall security - a +0.43 better turnover margin than Jaguars.
EDGEDefensive floor - a #5 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.

Why Jaguars can win

EDGEScoreboard output - a 23.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEGame script - Jaguars can tilt this if they keep Chiefs out of short fields.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Jaguars

Finish scoring drives

Jaguars need their 23.7 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Chiefs

Win the clean possessions

Chiefs are the model side at 64%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Jaguars can win the stat sheet; Chiefs can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Arizona CardinalsSeason leaders

Chiefs lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

P. Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

1,293

PASS YDS

6TD

2INT

D. Edwards

HB · Kansas City Chiefs

277

RUSH YDS

0TD

74ATT

X. Worthy

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

403

REC YDS

2TD

23REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Chiefs3-2 · last 5

WW7vs Raiders24-13

LW6@ Giants21-28

WW4@ Broncos23-13

LW3vs Bears24-31

WW2vs Vikings23-16

Head to head

Recent finals

ARI 1-1 JAXRecent finals across the latest 2 meetings.

S4 · W12Jaguars at ChiefsJAX56-53

S1 · W4Chiefs at JaguarsARI44-19