Game Center · S7 · W10 · Upcoming

Arizona at Baltimore

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 10

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Lions

Arizona

6-2ARI

TOwnerTheWitt

Upcoming

64%ARI

36%BAL

ATLAS projected final

31ARI

23BAL

Confidence64%

Primary driverL offense

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Vikings

Baltimore

4-4BAL

BOwnerB3AST_M0DE_NC

🆚REMATCH

A ATLAS READ

Lions are favored, and the model agrees.

Lions enter with the model lean at 64% and enough statistical support to back the record. Vikings need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Lions deeper into the race. Vikings need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Vikings are favored

EDGEBall security - a +0.50 better turnover margin than Lions.
EDGEGame script - Vikings can tilt this if they keep Lions out of short fields.

Why Lions can win

EDGEYardage profile - #3 offense, 362 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
EDGEScoreboard output - a 27.8 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEDefensive floor - a #12 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Vikings

Finish scoring drives

Vikings need their 21.5 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Lions

Control the repeat script

Lions have taken the last 5 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Vikings can win the stat sheet; Lions can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Arizona CardinalsSeason leaders

Lions need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

M. Faupula

QB · Detroit Lions

1,775

PASS YDS

16TD

3INT

J. Gibbs

HB · Detroit Lions

519

RUSH YDS

3TD

62ATT

A. St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

507

REC YDS

3TD

40REC

Baltimore RavensSeason leaders

Vikings lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

J. McCarthy

QB · Minnesota Vikings

1,886

PASS YDS

14TD

3INT

M. Preston

HB · Minnesota Vikings

354

RUSH YDS

3TD

77ATT

J. Addison

WR · Minnesota Vikings

653

REC YDS

8TD

43REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Lions4-1 · last 5

WW7vs Eagles23-20

WW6@ Packers22-16

WW5vs Vikings34-13

LW4@ Bears22-29

WW3vs Seahawks38-20

Vikings2-3 · last 5

LW7vs Commanders21-28

WW6vs Bears17-10

LW5@ Lions13-34

LW4vs Ravens21-38

WW3vs Cardinals30-17

Head to head

Recent finals

BAL 0-5 ARIRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.

S7 · W5Vikings at LionsARI34-13

S6 · W12Lions at VikingsARI28-7

S6 · W10Vikings at LionsARI31-14

S5 · W13Lions at VikingsARI36-26

S5 · W0Vikings at LionsARI28-10