Game Center · S7 · W9 · Upcoming

Buffalo at Jacksonville

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 9

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Broncos

Buffalo

4-4BUF

DOwnerDon

Upcoming

39%BUF

61%JAX

ATLAS projected final

24BUF

22JAX

Confidence61%

Primary driverJ ball security + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

A ATLAS READ

The numbers say Broncos. The record says Jaguars.

Broncos bring the sharper yardage profile at 373 YPG with a #2 offense. Jaguars still own the cleaner path: 61% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Jaguars deeper into the race. Broncos need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Jaguars are favored

EDGEBall security - a +0.08 better turnover margin than Broncos.
EDGEGame script - Jaguars can tilt this if they keep Broncos out of short fields.

Why Broncos can win

EDGEYardage profile - #2 offense, 373 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
EDGEScoreboard output - a 25.5 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEDefensive floor - a #9 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Broncos

Finish scoring drives

Broncos need their 25.5 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Jaguars

Win the clean possessions

Jaguars are the model side at 61%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Broncos can win the stat sheet; Jaguars can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Buffalo BillsSeason leaders

Broncos need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

B. Nix

QB · Denver Broncos

2,081

PASS YDS

18TD

5INT

R. Harvey

HB · Denver Broncos

640

RUSH YDS

2TD

129ATT

C. Fitzsimmons

WR · Denver Broncos

586

REC YDS

9TD

43REC

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Broncos2-3 · last 5

LW7vs Chargers31-34

LW6@ Cowboys14-24

WW5@ Chargers35-28

LW4vs Chiefs13-23

WW3vs Packers17-16

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Head to head

Recent finals

JAX 1-3 BUFRecent finals across the latest 4 meetings.

S5 · W0Broncos at JaguarsBUF38-28

S4 · W3Jaguars at BroncosJAX48-46

S3 · W17Jaguars at BroncosBUF38-31

S1 · W15Jaguars at BroncosBUF34-31