Game Center · S7 · W9 · Upcoming
Carolina at Arizona
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Game Center . Season 7 . Week 9
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIMEAway
Patriots
Carolina
5-3CAR
SOwnerShottazUpcoming
48%CAR
52%ARI
ATLAS projected final
37CAR
-34ARI
Confidence52%
Primary driverC home field + home field
Home
Chargers
Arizona
3-5ARI
GOwnerGioA ATLAS READ
The numbers say Patriots. The record says Chargers.
Patriots bring the sharper yardage profile at 406 YPG with a #1 offense. Chargers still own the cleaner path: 52% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.
Why it mattersA win pulls Chargers deeper into the race. Patriots need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01
The case for each side
Why Chargers are favored
- EDGEYardage profile - #6 offense, 346 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 3 meetings in this series.
Why Patriots can win
- EDGEYardage profile - #1 offense, 406 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 32.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +0.25 better turnover margin than Chargers.
02
Keys to the game
1Patriots
Finish scoring drives
Patriots need their 32.3 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
2Chargers
Control the repeat script
Chargers have taken the last 3 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.
3Both teams
Scoreboard over shape
Patriots can win the stat sheet; Chargers can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
03
Star spotlight
Carolina Panthers
Patriots need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
DM
D. Maye
QB · New England Patriots
2,862
PASS YDS
28TD
4INT
KW
K. Walker III
HB · New England Patriots
143
RUSH YDS
3TD
33ATT
EP
E. Peralta
WR · New England Patriots
847
REC YDS
13TD
62REC
Arizona Cardinals
Chargers lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
JH
J. Herbert
QB · Los Angeles Chargers
1,964
PASS YDS
19TD
5INT
OH
O. Hampton
HB · Los Angeles Chargers
387
RUSH YDS
5TD
68ATT
LM
L. McConkey
WR · Los Angeles Chargers
676
REC YDS
7TD
47REC
04
Recent form
Patriots3-2 · last 5
WW7@ Bills44-22
WW6@ Steelers41-28
LW5vs Jaguars16-28
LW4@ Dolphins36-39
WW3@ Jets41-31
Chargers2-3 · last 5
WW7@ Broncos34-31
LW6vs Raiders24-27
LW5vs Broncos28-35
WW4vs Jaguars30-17
LW3@ Titans25-28
05
Head to head
ARI 4-1 CARRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S6 · W6Patriots at ChargersARI43-41
S5 · W14Chargers at PatriotsARI49-34
S4 · W16Chargers at PatriotsARI63-49
S2 · W11Chargers at PatriotsCAR42-34
S1 · W18Patriots at ChargersARI33-28