Game Center · S7 · W11 · Upcoming
Buffalo at Arizona
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Game Center . Season 7 . Week 11
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIMEAway
Bears
Buffalo
4-3BUF
KOwnerKingCaleb_18Upcoming
34%BUF
66%ARI
ATLAS projected final
24BUF
-27ARI
Confidence66%
Primary driverL ball security + home field
Home
Lions
Arizona
6-2ARI
TOwnerTheWittA ATLAS READ
Lions are favored, and the model agrees.
Lions enter with the model lean at 66% and enough statistical support to back the record. Bears need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.
Why it mattersA win pulls Lions deeper into the race. Bears need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01
The case for each side
Why Lions are favored
- EDGEYardage profile - #3 offense, 362 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 27.8 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +0.21 better turnover margin than Bears.
Why Bears can win
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #6 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
- EDGEGame script - Bears can tilt this if they keep Lions out of short fields.
02
Keys to the game
1Bears
Finish scoring drives
Bears need their 25.0 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
2Lions
Win the clean possessions
Lions are the model side at 66%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
3Both teams
Scoreboard over shape
Bears can win the stat sheet; Lions can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
03
Star spotlight
Buffalo Bills
Bears need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
CW
C. Williams
QB · Chicago Bears
1,493
PASS YDS
11TD
2INT
DC
D. Carradine
HB · Chicago Bears
496
RUSH YDS
7TD
104ATT
LB
L. Burden III
WR · Chicago Bears
387
REC YDS
3TD
23REC
Arizona Cardinals
Lions lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
MF
M. Faupula
QB · Detroit Lions
1,775
PASS YDS
16TD
3INT
JG
J. Gibbs
HB · Detroit Lions
519
RUSH YDS
3TD
62ATT
AS
A. St. Brown
WR · Detroit Lions
507
REC YDS
3TD
40REC
04
Recent form
Bears3-2 · last 5
LW7vs Steelers30-36
LW6@ Vikings10-17
WW4vs Lions29-22
WW3@ Chiefs31-24
WW2vs Packers28-20
Lions4-1 · last 5
WW7vs Eagles23-20
WW6@ Packers22-16
WW5vs Vikings34-13
LW4@ Bears22-29
WW3vs Seahawks38-20
05
Head to head
ARI 4-1 BUFRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S7 · W4Lions at BearsBUF29-22
S6 · W6Lions at BearsARI34-31
S6 · W1Bears at LionsARI45-42
S5 · W11Bears at LionsARI24-21
S5 · W7Lions at BearsARI24-14