Game Center · S7 · W10 · Upcoming

Arizona at Jacksonville

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 7 . Week 10

Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME

Away

Colts

Arizona

3-5ARI

BOwnerBenny

Upcoming

40%ARI

60%JAX

ATLAS projected final

21ARI

22JAX

Confidence60%

Primary driverJ ball security + home field

Spread

Total

Money

Home

Jaguars

Jacksonville

4-3JAX

MOwnerMellow

🆚REMATCH

A ATLAS READ

The numbers say Colts. The record says Jaguars.

Colts bring the sharper yardage profile at 330 YPG with a #13 offense. Jaguars still own the cleaner path: 60% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Jaguars deeper into the race. Colts need the upset to change the shape of their season.

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way

Why Jaguars are favored

EDGEScoreboard output - a 23.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 4 meetings in this series.
EDGEBall security - a +1.08 better turnover margin than Colts.

Why Colts can win

EDGEGame script - Colts can tilt this if they keep Jaguars out of short fields.

Keys to the game

What decides it

1Colts

Finish scoring drives

Colts need their 22.0 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Jaguars

Control the repeat script

Jaguars have taken the last 4 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Colts can win the stat sheet; Jaguars can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

Star spotlight

Season leaders

Arizona CardinalsSeason leaders

Colts need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

A. Richardson Sr

QB · Indianapolis Colts

1,806

PASS YDS

13TD

2INT

D. Patton

HB · Indianapolis Colts

510

RUSH YDS

4TD

118ATT

S. Burgess

WR · Indianapolis Colts

593

REC YDS

5TD

33REC

Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

M. Cartwright III

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

1,618

PASS YDS

12TD

3INT

D. Achane

HB · Jacksonville Jaguars

422

RUSH YDS

5TD

104ATT

B. Thomas Jr

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

496

REC YDS

5TD

34REC

Recent form

Last 5 games

Colts3-2 · last 5

WW7vs Ravens30-24

WW6@ Cardinals29-26

LW5@ Buccaneers9-17

LW4@ Texans17-29

WW3vs Panthers32-3

Jaguars3-2 · last 5

WW7@ Panthers38-21

WW5@ Patriots28-16

LW4@ Chargers17-30

LW3vs Raiders10-35

WW2@ Titans31-24

Head to head

Recent finals

JAX 4-1 ARIRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.

S6 · W18Colts at JaguarsJAX53-36

S6 · W15Colts at JaguarsJAX31-26

S6 · W1Jaguars at ColtsJAX28-0

S5 · W16Jaguars at ColtsJAX24-17

S5 · W7Colts at JaguarsARI31-17