Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Shaun (Bengals)Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.
White Will (Colts)The numbers say Bengals. The record says Colts.
Bengals bring the sharper yardage profile at 351 YPG with a #28 offense. Colts still own the cleaner path: 50% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.
The case for each side
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #6 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
- EDGEGame script - Colts can tilt this if they keep Bengals out of short fields.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 32.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +1.33 better turnover margin than Colts.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #8 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Keys to the game
Finish scoring drives
Bengals need their 32.3 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
Win the clean possessions
Colts are the model side at 50%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
Scoreboard over shape
Bengals can win the stat sheet; Colts can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
Star spotlight
Bengals need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
Colts lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
