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Game Center · S1 · W16 · Upcoming

Green Bay at Chicago

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 1 . Week 16
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Packers
Green Bay
4-0GB
KillaE94 👑 (Packers) Discord avatarKillaE94 👑 (Packers)
Upcoming

Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.

Home
Bears
Chicago
1-3CHI
Troy (Bears) Discord avatarTroy (Bears)
📊COIN FLIP
A ATLAS READ

The numbers say Packers. The record says Bears.

Packers bring the sharper yardage profile at 455 YPG with a #3 offense. Bears still own the cleaner path: 50% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Bears deeper into the race. Packers need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Bears are favored
  • EDGEYardage profile - #8 offense, 408 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
  • RISKTurnovers - a -2.50 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
Why Packers can win
  • EDGEYardage profile - #3 offense, 455 YPG, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 44.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEBall security - a +3.00 better turnover margin than Bears.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Packers

Finish scoring drives

Packers need their 44.3 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Bears

Win the clean possessions

Bears are the model side at 50%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Packers can win the stat sheet; Bears can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Green Bay PackersSeason leaders

Packers need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

J. Love
QB · Green Bay Packers
1,171
PASS YDS
14TD
5INT
J. Jacobs
HB · Green Bay Packers
620
RUSH YDS
7TD
85ATT
M. Golden
WR · Green Bay Packers
314
REC YDS
4TD
11REC
Chicago BearsSeason leaders

Bears lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

C. Williams
QB · Chicago Bears
1,340
PASS YDS
13TD
14INT
D. Swift
HB · Chicago Bears
210
RUSH YDS
1TD
38ATT
Z. Thomas
WR · Chicago Bears
394
REC YDS
2TD
14REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Packers4-0 · last 4
WW4@ Buccaneers31-28
WW3vs Falcons73-55
WW2@ Jets31-28
WW1@ Vikings42-28
Bears1-3 · last 4
LW4vs Jets28-56
LW3vs Eagles9-34
WW2vs Vikings40-35
LW1@ Panthers20-37
05

Head to head

Recent finals
CHI 2-3 GBRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S6 · W17Bears at PackersGB24-16
S6 · W10Packers at BearsCHI53-42
S5 · W18Bears at PackersGB49-17
S5 · W16Packers at BearsGB49-31
S4 · W8Bears at PackersCHI43-34