Seattle at San Francisco
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
Dragon Caesar (Seahawks)Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.
Z (49ers)49ers are favored, and the model agrees.
Seahawks bring the sharper yardage profile at 333 YPG with a #24 offense. 49ers still own the cleaner path: 50% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.
The case for each side
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 31.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +1.17 better turnover margin than Seahawks.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #5 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
- EDGEGame script - Seahawks can tilt this if they keep 49ers out of short fields.
Keys to the game
Finish scoring drives
Seahawks need their 22.5 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
Win the clean possessions
49ers are the model side at 50%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
Scoreboard over shape
Seahawks can win the stat sheet; 49ers can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
Star spotlight
Seahawks need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
49ers lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
