Washington at Arizona
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
BONE (Commanders)Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.
NastyMofo (Cardinals)The numbers say Commanders. The record says Cardinals.
Commanders bring the sharper yardage profile at 382 YPG with a #25 offense. Cardinals still own the cleaner path: 50% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.
The case for each side
- RISKTurnovers - a -1.00 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
- EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 2 meetings in this series.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #11 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 40.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEBall security - a +0.33 better turnover margin than Cardinals.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #3 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Keys to the game
Protect the football
Commanders have the yardage profile, but a -0.67 turnover margin is the leak they have to seal.
Control the repeat script
Cardinals have taken the last 2 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.
Scoreboard over shape
Commanders can win the stat sheet; Cardinals can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
Star spotlight
Commanders need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
Cardinals lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
