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Game Center · S1 · W11 · Upcoming

Indianapolis at Houston

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 1 . Week 11
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Colts
Indianapolis
0-3IND
White Will (Colts) Discord avatarWhite Will (Colts)
Upcoming

Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.

Home
Texans
Houston
1-3HOU
AntiSC (Texans) Discord avatarAntiSC (Texans)
📊COIN FLIP
A ATLAS READ

Texans are favored, and the model agrees.

Colts bring the sharper yardage profile at 332 YPG with a #29 offense. Texans still own the cleaner path: 50% by ATLAS, steadier possession math, and the home-field tilt.

Why it mattersA win pulls Texans deeper into the race. Colts need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Texans are favored
  • RISKTurnovers - a -1.00 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 23.5 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
Why Colts can win
  • EDGEBall security - a +1.00 better turnover margin than Texans.
  • EDGEDefensive floor - a #6 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Colts

Finish scoring drives

Colts need their 22.0 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Texans

Win the clean possessions

Texans are the model side at 50%, so avoiding short fields is the job.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Colts can win the stat sheet; Texans can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Indianapolis ColtsSeason leaders

Colts need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

A. Richardson Sr
QB · Indianapolis Colts
502
PASS YDS
6TD
3INT
J. Taylor
HB · Indianapolis Colts
367
RUSH YDS
2TD
47ATT
A. Pierce
WR · Indianapolis Colts
264
REC YDS
5TD
11REC
Houston TexansSeason leaders

Texans lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

C. Stroud
QB · Houston Texans
847
PASS YDS
3TD
9INT
J. Mixon
HB · Houston Texans
370
RUSH YDS
6TD
61ATT
N. Collins
WR · Houston Texans
283
REC YDS
1TD
19REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Colts0-3 · last 3
LW3vs Texans19-23
LW2@ Chiefs40-56
LW1vs Ravens7-45
Texans1-3 · last 4
LW4vs Cowboys27-31
WW3@ Colts23-19
LW2vs Bengals20-27
LW1vs Bills24-27
05

Head to head

Recent finals
HOU 3-2 INDRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S6 · W13Texans at ColtsIND38-24
S6 · W11Colts at TexansIND20-9
S5 · W4Texans at ColtsHOU35-6
S5 · W2Colts at TexansHOU35-21
S4 · W15Colts at TexansHOU24-17