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Game Center · S1 · W8 · Upcoming

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.

Game Center . Season 1 . Week 8
Kickoff TBA.ATLAS PRIME
Away
Colts
Indianapolis
0-3IND
White Will (Colts) Discord avatarWhite Will (Colts)
Upcoming

Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.

Home
Jaguars
Jacksonville
2-1JAX
Gio (Jaguars) Discord avatarGio (Jaguars)
📊COIN FLIP
A ATLAS READ

Jaguars are favored, and the model agrees.

Jaguars enter with the model lean at 50% and enough statistical support to back the record. Colts need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.

Why it mattersA win pulls Jaguars deeper into the race. Colts need the upset to change the shape of their season.
01

The case for each side

Why the model leans this way
Why Jaguars are favored
  • RISKTurnovers - a -0.67 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
  • EDGEScoreboard output - a 28.7 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
  • EDGEHome & head-to-head - won the last 4 meetings in this series.
Why Colts can win
  • EDGEBall security - a +0.67 better turnover margin than Jaguars.
  • EDGEDefensive floor - a #6 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
02

Keys to the game

What decides it
1Colts

Finish scoring drives

Colts need their 22.0 PPG pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.

2Jaguars

Control the repeat script

Jaguars have taken the last 4 in the series; the model likes the same steady path.

3Both teams

Scoreboard over shape

Colts can win the stat sheet; Jaguars can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.

03

Star spotlight

Season leaders
Indianapolis ColtsSeason leaders

Colts need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.

A. Richardson Sr
QB · Indianapolis Colts
502
PASS YDS
6TD
3INT
J. Taylor
HB · Indianapolis Colts
367
RUSH YDS
2TD
47ATT
A. Pierce
WR · Indianapolis Colts
264
REC YDS
5TD
11REC
Jacksonville JaguarsSeason leaders

Jaguars lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.

T. Lawrence
QB · Jacksonville Jaguars
838
PASS YDS
7TD
8INT
B. Tuten
HB · Jacksonville Jaguars
287
RUSH YDS
3TD
38ATT
J. Meyers
WR · Jacksonville Jaguars
270
REC YDS
2TD
12REC
04

Recent form

Last 5 games
Colts0-3 · last 3
LW3vs Texans19-23
LW2@ Chiefs40-56
LW1vs Ravens7-45
Jaguars2-1 · last 3
WW3vs Patriots34-31
WW2@ Broncos28-24
LW1vs Browns24-38
05

Head to head

Recent finals
JAX 4-1 INDRecent finals across the latest 5 meetings.
S6 · W19Colts at JaguarsJAX53-36
S6 · W16Colts at JaguarsJAX31-26
S6 · W2Jaguars at ColtsJAX28-0
S5 · W17Jaguars at ColtsJAX24-17
S5 · W8Colts at JaguarsIND31-17