Arizona at Dallas
Pre-game preview with ATLAS win probability, projected box, season matchup, recent form, head-to-head, and the players who decide it.
NastyMofo (Cardinals)Forecast pending - lines post after the next sync.
Clutch (Cowboys)Cowboys are favored, and the model agrees.
Cowboys enter with the model lean at 50% and enough statistical support to back the record. Cardinals need a clean, explosive script to bend the pre-game numbers.
The case for each side
- EDGEBall security - a +2.75 better turnover margin than Cardinals.
- EDGEGame script - Cowboys can tilt this if they keep Cardinals out of short fields.
- RISKTurnovers - a -1.00 margin keeps turning good drives into pressure.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a 33.3 PPG scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a #11 yardage defense keeps the upset script alive.
Keys to the game
Protect the football
Cardinals have the yardage profile, but a -1.00 turnover margin is the leak they have to seal.
Win the clean possessions
Cowboys are the model side at 50%, so avoiding short fields is the job.
Scoreboard over shape
Cardinals can win the stat sheet; Cowboys can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
Star spotlight
Cardinals need their leaders to turn production into clean possessions.
Cowboys lean on their leaders to control pace and protect the model edge.
