Tampa Bay Bucs at Green Bay Pack
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Yardage favors Packers. ATLAS favors Buccaneers.
Packers bring the sharper yardage profile at 496 YPG with a #7 offense. Buccaneers still own the cleaner path: 70% by ATLAS despite playing away.
Why
Packers have the upset route. Buccaneers carry the ATLAS model lean.
Stakes
A win pulls Buccaneers deeper into the race. Packers need the upset to change the shape of their season.
The case for each side
Bucs
- EDGEDefensive floor - a **#11 yardage defense** keeps the upset script alive.
- EDGEGame script - Buccaneers can tilt this if they keep Packers out of short fields.
Pack
- EDGEYardage profile - **#7 offense**, **496 YPG**, and enough volume to stress the matchup.
- EDGEScoreboard output - a **39.5 PPG** scoring clip gives them a real path.
- EDGEDefensive floor - a **#1 yardage defense** keeps the upset script alive.
Keys to the game
Finish scoring drives
Packers need their **39.5 PPG** pace to turn into touchdowns instead of empty yards.
Win the clean possessions
Buccaneers are the model side at **70%**, so avoiding short fields is the job.
Scoreboard over shape
Packers can win the stat sheet; Buccaneers can win the possession math. The winner is whoever makes yards count.
Forecast ATLAS
TBWin chanceGB
Projected scoreTB 36 - 29 GB
Projected total65
Market line
Spread
-7TB
+7GB
Money
-276TB
+221GB
Total
O 65Over
U 65Under
